The battle for the Ogun State Governorship appears to close to call among the top three contenders in the race – Dapo Abiodun of the All Progressives Congress, Ladi Adebutu of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ‘Biyi Otegbeye of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). our Correspondent in Abeokuta takes a look at the major factors that would determine where the governorship pendulum will swing on Saturday.
OUTCOME OF PRESIDENTIAL/NASS POLLS
The ruling APC swept all the three Senate and nine House of Representatives seats in the February 25 election. Just as it delivered the state emphatically for Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the presidential ballot.
The APC’s feat remains a pointer to what may will play out on Saturday. In 2019, opposition parties had three House of Representatives seats and in 2015, late Buruji Kashamu was elected Ogun East Senator on the platform of PDP, same as Ladi Adebutu and Adesegun Adekoya (Attacker) respectively elected into the Green Chamber. Adekoya who is the last man standing PDP Rep lost re-election on February 25.
Some analysts, however, feel Saturday’s poll would be a different kettle of fish. Unlike in the presidential election when APC leaders buried their hatchets and pushed for Tinubu’s victory, the ruling party will be going into the Saturday’s poll divided. Former Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun, is strongly backing ADC’s Otegbeye against Abiodun. Like Amosun, some dissident APC members especially those who lost the party’s ticket are likely to work against Abiodun during the election.
POLITICAL BIGWIGS
Findings have revealed that major political bigwigs will also determine the outcome of Saturday’s election.
All the three former governors in the state, Aremo Olusegun Osoba and Otunba Gbenga Daniel, and Senator Ibikunle Amosun are members of the ruling party. While Osoba and Daniel are in Abiodun’s camp, Amosun is backing the ADC candidate “with his full chest.”
Apart from the former governors, the Lagos West Senator, Olamilekan Adeola, who was recently elected to represent Ogun West, is also a factor in the election.
Serving Senators, House of Representatives and Local Government Chairmen will largely determine voting patterns in their respective areas. The ruling APC still controls a large number of these seats in the state.
FINANCIAL WAR CHEST
Saturday’s poll will also be determined largely by the financial strength of the major actors. What more? vote-buying has become an integral part of Nigeria’s election. Despite the biting cash crunch during the February 25 polls, findings revealed that political parties heavily induced voters who were paid via their banks’ accounts.
The incumbent governor who has control of the state’s resources, perhaps, has the greatest advantage over others who are equally not pushovers.
Adebutu’s father, the business mogul and philanthropist, Sir Kessinton Adebutu, is strongly bankrolling his son’s governorship ambition. Just last week when his son met with some pensioners in the state, the father through a representative announced N10,000 for each of the attendants as a “transport fare.” About 1,000 pensioners were present at the meeting.
Also, the ADC’s Otegbeye will heavily rely on Amosun’s ‘bank’ to finance his election. But one thing is certain, it will be difficult or impossible for him to outspend the incumbent governor.
ABIODUN’S ‘PERFORMANCE’
First time governors rely on performance while seeking re-election in the office. In Abiodun’s case, there is no consensus that the governor has made good of his on electioneering promises to the state, in nearly four years in office.
Under his watch, Ogun debt profile has increased. Lagos, Ogun and Rivers are the three most indebted states, according to the latest data from the Debt Management Office. Lagos owed N780.48bn; Ogun, N241.98bn; and Rivers, N225.51bn.
Insecurity has also increased in the last four years of his administration. Herder-farmer’s clashes, cult war, rape and most especially kidnapping nearly brought the state under it kneels. Hardly a week would pass without a record of kidnapping or killing in the state. Ijebu axis, Lagos-Ibadan expressway, Lagos-Abeokuta expressway, Imeko-Ayetoro road, Soyoye community are some of the areas prone to kidnapping.
Cult clashes most especially in Abeokuta, Sagamu, Ijebu-Ode, have claimed dozens of lives. In January 2021, members of the Eiye Confraternity were arrested for allegedly killing 25 persons within a month in Ijebu Ode and its environs.
However, his government made efforts in tackling those challenges including collaboration with neighboring Oyo and Lagos State, establishment of the Amotekun corps and donation of vehicles and ammunition to the security agencies in the state.
His efforts in infrastructural projects like Ijebu-Ode/Epe expressway, Agro -Cargo Airport at Ilishan and rehabilitation of some inner and link roads across the state have attracted applause from the residents.
The governor also failed on workers’ welfare, education, health, sports and the Local Government autonomy which he promised to drive the growth and development of the grassroots. For instance in the health sector, the United Nations Children’s Fund has disclosed that Ogun State recorded the highest number of childrens’ deaths in the southwestern part of the country.
UNICEF stated further that 68 out of 1000 children between the ages of 0 and less than one year died after their birth in Ogun State.
According to the body, Ogun State has also ranked the highest in the deaths of children between 0 and five years with the record of 85 deaths out of 1000 children.
